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Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen

Fri 07 May 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 32 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Union Berlin win: 46.5%

Draw: 25.8%

Werder Bremen win: 27.7%

Predicted: Union Berlin

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 58.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.96

More corners: Union Berlin (60.9% home / 39.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Union Berlin

Yes

Probability Union Berlin wins or draws: 55.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Union Berlin Clearest lean of the available outcomes (46% vs next-best 28%). (46.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (60.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (58.0% model probability) High

Corners Union Berlin (more corners) (61.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Union Berlin win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (55.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.